Six games, seven points. Birmingham City have improved under Gary Rowett, but they haven’t improved enough to stay in front of Sheffield Wednesday’s upward curve.
Last weekend’s 0-0 draw with Rotherham, coupled with Wednesday’s 3-1 win at Blackburn Rovers on Sunday, has left Blues in the bottom three with two games to play. The trip to Huddersfield Town on Saturday is do-or-die for both clubs.
Huddersfield will be relegated if they lose and Blues could – it’s unlikely but a possibility at this stage – drop if they are defeated and the three teams above them record victories. Blues must do something they haven’t managed under Rowett: record an away victory.
Blues have been lousy away from St Andrew’s all season. Their three wins in 22 Championship away games have all been secured by different managers. John Eustace won in Bristol, Wayne Rooney in Cardiff and Tony Mowbray in Stoke.
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There is a feeling that Rowett has to win in Huddersfield for Blues to stand a strong chance of winning their relegation scrap on the final day. We can’t guarantee that a St Andrew’s sell-out will inspire this group of players to beat a Norwich City side gunning for promotion.
Rowett might have presided over an upturn in results since succeeding Mark Venus in the interim role, but he hasn’t convinced everyone. There was a lot of discontent surrounding Rowett’s selection of Oliver Burke at Rotherham last week and the set-up was too negative for some.
You can bet Rowett won’t be picking Burke again at the John Smith’s Stadium. However, he isn’t likely to ditch the defensive structure which, in fairness to Rowett, has earned Blues their points since the international break.
Blues have kept three clean sheets in six games under Rowett. They managed seven in the 38 league games prior to his arrival. Five goals have been conceded in Rowett’s six games at an xG (expected goals) rate of 5.3. In the 38 games before Rowett, Blues had an xG against of 54 (as per FBREF).
The strides Blues have made defensively under Rowett are obvious. Blues haven’t had such positive defensive statistics since Eustace was unceremoniously sacked in October.
Clean sheets alone will not keep Blues in the Championship, though. With six goals under Rowett, Blues have outperformed their 5.5 xG but – wins over Preston and Coventry aside – they haven’t exactly been banging at the door of their opponents.
Rowett has no doubt assessed the tools available to him and arrived at the conclusion that Blues’ best escape route is to keep clean sheets and win by the odd goal. The Coventry result is the only game since early October where Blues have recorded a victory by more than a one goal margin.
Against a Huddersfield side that hasn’t scored more than one goal in a game since February, Blues have a realistic chance of keeping a clean sheet. Our doubts centre around Blues’ shortcomings at the other end.
Will they have enough firepower to ensure that a good defensive performance returns three points? When the chances come against a Terriers team that has conceded a whopping 74 goals, Blues simply have to take them. Their Championship status depends on it.
